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New Yorkers will find out who will be their new city leader this Tuesday, in a contest that will determine who governs and protects the country's largest city at a time when the former president has threatened to send military troops to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has witnessed a race for mayor that has matched two distinctly opposing Democrats against each other. The contest has turned into an acrimonious face-off, laced with alleged racial bias and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the political differences between the two leading contenders that could have significant consequences for how the Democratic party fares in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

On the left side is Zohran Mamdani, the 34-year-old democratic socialist whose meteoric rise and people-powered movement has brought international attention. On the establishment side is Andrew Cuomo, the ex- Democratic New York governor now campaigning independently – and enjoying the backing of ultra-rich donors and big business.

As the election approaches, it is Mamdani, the former longshot who beat his opponent in the party primary who is solidly positioned as the frontrunner. Mamdani, who has campaigned on a agenda of economic justice and promised to halt rent increases for about 2 million New Yorkers, has led his rival by double-digits in every poll conducted in the fall, and it is very much the progressive's election to lose.

A Bitter Contest

However, Cuomo, who resigned as the state's leader in 2021 amid accusations of sexual harassment, has made it clear he will battle to the end, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt manner. He has criticized his opponent's objectives as unachievable, and in recent days laughed as a radio host made anti-Muslim comments about Mamdani, who is Muslim. Recently, the independent was strongly criticized as racist after posting an artificial intelligence video that included a slew of racial caricatures and showed his opponent freeing a convicts.

It's been a rather grubby conclusion to an election that could be key to the path that the Democratic party, floundering in its response to the former president's authoritarian grabs, adopts in the near future.

National Implications

Should Mamdani secures a clear victory, the establishment party leaders who have declined to support his bid will be compelled to address a message that has resonated with voters' frustration at inequality, soaring price rises and the establishment. It would be hard for Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries not to adopt at least a portion of Mamdani's progressive proposals about economic justice, given the newcomer has created an enthusiasm within the party arguably not seen since the Vermont senator ran for president in 2016.

Conversely, should Cuomo, who had been expected to win easily in the June primary, achieve a surprising riches-to-rags-to-riches win, it could reinforce national Democrats' current model of cautious, lackluster resistance – a tactic that has infuriated the party base. A NYC defeat of Mamdani's progressive, positive message could persuade party leaders that the best plan is to stick to the political center – even as polls show the present version of the party is deeply unpopular nationwide.

Campaign Energy

Voters in the city seem to prefer the progressive agenda. Polls show that Mamdani supporters are much more excited about their candidate than Cuomo backers, something that has been apparent during the race. The candidate's engaging content on social media, his hopeful outlook for the city and his readiness to actually get out and connect with voters in the metropolis has drawn an army of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them young or first-time voters.

Negative Tactics

However, the former governor, 67, continues to fight. And with the stakes stacked against him, the former governor has turned to negative campaigning in recent weeks.

Following extensive throwing basically everything at Mamdani to see what might stick, the independent has narrowed his focus on targeting the candidate directly. He has labelled his rival, who was of Ugandan origin to South Asian heritage, an "radical", and appeared on Fox Business for an interview with a rightwing host, where the candidate claimed New York “will not survive” Mamdani as city leader. It reached a nadir recently, when Cuomo laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said Mamdani would “cheer” another terrorist incident.

Campaign Dynamics

The line of attack mirrors much of what Trump, who has deployed the military reserves to Washington DC and warned to do the same to NYC, has said about Mamdani, and maybe that is expected. A group of wealthy residents, including some who donated to Trump in the 2024 election, have pumped millions into trying to get the independent into office, as other influential figures have pressured the Republican candidate to drop out from the race.

Candidate Backgrounds

For the Cuomo camp, and his wealthy backers, are worried, it should not have reached to this. When Mamdani, one of one hundred fifty New York state assembly members, started his campaign for mayor in last year, few had known him, and in truth, few even noticed.

Cuomo, by comparison, eased his way into the race in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the big beast who apparently held every edge. The classic political insider, he had married a political dynasty member and served in Bill Clinton’s administration. He assumed office as New York governor in over a decade ago, seventeen years after his father, the former governor, stepped down from the same position.

Mamdani, who was voted in to the state legislature in recently, does not have the same political heritage. But his dedication to providing no-cost transit and affordable child services – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – offer a more positive vision of the city's direction than his opponent's pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his promise to hire more police officers.

Campaign Controversies

Still, Mamdani has faced some challenges in recent days, after footage surfaced appearing to show him implying the New York police department and the IDF were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the police is on your neck, it’s been laced by the IDF,” the candidate said in the recording, filmed at a DSA gathering in 2023. The progressive, a longtime critic of the Israeli government who has said the country is engaging in atrocities in the Palestinian territory, indicated he was questioning cooperative programs between the city police and Israeli forces.

Emotional Response

As the race closes, Mamdani appears to have won empathy and backing, however, for his reaction to his opponent's escalating attacks.

Mamdani responded to Cuomo’s terrorism comments in an emotional video. In it, the candidate remembered how, when he first ran for the legislature, a family member suggested to him that he did not have to disclose about his Muslim faith. It was a lesson, Mamdani said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been told “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the margins of our city. That it is in those shadows alone where followers of Islam could embrace their true selves, and that if we were to emerge from those seclusion, then it is in those shadows that we must leave our beliefs.”

Speaking to the behavior of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has claimed Mamd