Daily Homicides in the nation Drop Thirty-Seven Percent Under the Sheinbaum Administration, According to Government Statistics

The average number of per-day killings each month in Mexico has fallen by thirty-seven percent since President Claudia Sheinbaum began her term, as stated by recent administrative data. However, public safety experts have advised that homicide numbers may not signal enhanced countrywide stability.

Notable Reduction in Daily Numbers

Officials reported an mean of nearly 55 homicides a day in the month of November versus nearly 87 when Sheinbaum began the presidency in September. This announcement was shared by the director of the country’s national public security system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's regular news conference on a recent Tuesday.

“The outcome in homicides that have been recorded in these past months is remarkably notable,” Claudia Sheinbaum stated, explaining that last month the lowest number of homicides were recorded for any single November in the past 10 years.

Historical Context and Official Strategy

Fierce cartel internal conflicts, combined with the government’s heavily militarised efforts to take on the drug gangs, have made Mexico’s homicide numbers escalate in the past few years. The rate hit a maximum of 36,773 homicides in 2020, as reported by the country’s national statistics agency.

That gave Mexico a murder figure more than 4x higher than the United States. From that point, killings have been on the decrease, declining to 33,550 last year. Sheinbaum has credited her national security approach for an seemingly steeper decline in homicides in the current year.

At a press conference in the summer, the head of state said: “There is a plan, we have oversight of the plan, and we have detailed tracking municipality by municipality in certain cases. The strategy works. And we have to persist at it each day.”

The central elements of Sheinbaum’s safety plan encompass:

• Strengthening Mexico’s domestic security force.
• Improving information gathering and investigative capabilities.
• Enhanced coordination between various departments.

Analyst Caution and Statistical Concerns

Nevertheless, public safety experts warned that relying on murder numbers to draw a conclusion of improved security was misleading. This is especially true given the rise in different criminal activities such as people going missing.

“That would be very good news if this was a reduction, but I think we must not just concentrate on the homicide numbers and conclude: ‘Oh well, great,’” commented Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexican organised crime. “I would be cautiously hopeful.”

According to the policy analysis organization Mexico Evalúa, homicides overall fell by over 20% in the first 10 months of the current year compared with the same period last year. However, disappearances have gone up by 15% and in certain states have surged by as much as 200%.

“Statistics on murders is not reliable for assessing the situation of public insecurity,” stated Armando Vargas, a security analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have law enforcement and investigators who do not have the resources or the will to accurately recognize and classify bodies. Secondly, organised [criminals] … have the ability to conceal violent acts through disappearances.”

Vargas pointed out that using month-to-month averages of daily killings was also problematic because it may obscure periods when there were notably high levels of murders.

“Relying on the daily average renders high peaks of violence invisible,” he said.

Arrests and Seizures as Metrics of Success

Where the administration can highlight the effectiveness of its safety strategy is on detentions and seizures. Nearly 40,000 individuals were apprehended between last October and November 2025 for serious crimes, according to government figures. Over 20,000 weapons were confiscated and 311 tonnes of narcotics intercepted.

“Donald Trump cannot claim President Sheinbaum of doing nothing, because actually she is accomplishing a lot with these many thousands of arrests, many thousands of seizures, and all the tactical weakening of organised crime. It’s very politically beneficial,” commented Vargas.

Ongoing Unrest and Public Frustration

But despite these actions, Mexico continues to be beset by severe violence, with multiple regions in the midst of cartel-fueled bloodshed. Last month there was a high-profile assassination of a well-liked mayor in the state of Michoacan, one of 10 local leaders assassinated in the last year.

Weeks after, many thousands of young people demonstrated in the capital and throughout the nation to show their frustration at corruption and cartel violence.

“The federal government frames [data] in a manner to build a narrative of safety. Politically it’s highly effective, from a social perspective it’s highly problematic,” Vargas remarked.